Silicon Alley Insider is reporting that Apple has asked developers to send in their applications today for testing and approval before the July 11 launch. Problem is, if you haven't been accepted into the $99 developer program, then you won't be able to submit your app. SAI is also reporting there's a six month wait to be accepted into that program, which is a huge problem.
This is an extremely frustrating development, and not only because we haven't been accepted ourselves for a side project we're currently working on. Developers have been getting an unacceptable amount of communication from Apple on this (ie, hardly anything), and thats not the way to run a business. There's no criteria for who's getting accepted and who isn't, or even how long it will take, or when you could expect to be accepted.
For the average developer looking to monetize their application, the stakes are rather large. Knowing your application is done and sitting on the sidelines while your competitors rake in the cash is frustrating (to be polite).
Basic applications have that problem, but many applications have social components these days. The social take on Metcalfe's law dictates that the more users an app has the more useful people will find it. So the applications that get in and are able to accumulate users have an exponential advantage over later applications.
All in all this adds up to some very frustrating developments. Not to mention a huge problem for Apple. Obviously, Apple has an incentive to accept applications, so I'm not second guessing their motives, but having developers sitting around with finished applications and no way to make money doesn't sound like a recipe for success. Many will turn to marketing to jailbreak users, which will only encourage more jailbreaking. (Metcalfe's law used against Apple). The more applications there are out there for jailbroken phones, the more people will jailbreak theirs and the more developed and refined the distribution system for those applications will become.
Our prediction that jailbroken phones would become rare is predicated on the fact that developers would turn to the app store to make money off their apps. But if they aren't making money (by not being in the App Store), they will find money somewhere else somehow. And thats a problem for Apple.
So, Steve, "what's the deal?