How big will the iPhone and iPod Touch markets be by June 2008?

We estimate how many iPhones there will be by June, 2008, and calculate what some market share numbers will look like.

Apple states they have sold around 4 million iPhones. According to some sites, they’re averaging around 13,000 a day. That will equal another 1.5 million by June, 2008. That means an estimated 5.5 million iPhones by mid-year. There are currently no specific iPod Touch sales figures. Any number is just a guess, but Apple sells around 70 million iPods a year these days (although the growth is slowing), so two quarter’s worth is about 35 million. Whatever percentage of that is the iPod Touch will add to any application’s available market.

Using just the iPhone estimates, we can calculate that:
0.5% of the market = 27,500
1.0% of the market = 55,000
2.0% of the market = 110,000
5.0% of the market = 275,000
10% of the market = 550,000
20% of the market = 1,100,000
50% of the market = 2,750,000

Using our chart for iPhone revenue, an app that sells for $4.99 and has 10% market penetration will earn the seller $1,925,000 (total revenue minus Apple’s 30% share).

An app that retails for $.99 and has 20% market penetration will have earned $770,000 (again, total revenue minus Apple’s 30% share).